March 15, 2019

6301 JP, CAT, KMTUY, 000425 CH, 600031 CH, BEML IN, CMI, CNHI, DE, Liebherr Group, MTU Friedrichshaken GmbH, OJSC BelAZ, VALE, VOLVB SS

Download Sample Report Click to View Full Report

SOURCES AND BACKGROUND

41 Caterpillar equipment dealers representing more than $3.7 billion in 2018 new equipment sales

NORTH AMERICA 10 equipment dealers representing more than $1.6 billion in 2018 new equipment sales; EMEA 15 equipment dealers (8 in Western Europe and 7 in Russia/CIS) representing more than $980 million in 2018 new equipment sales; LATIN AMERICA 4 equipment dealers (3 in Brazil and 1 in Chile) representing more than $430 million in 2018 new equipment sales; ASIA/PACIFIC 12 equipment dealers (10 in China and 2 in India) representing more than $760 million in 2017 new equipment sales

REPEAT SOURCES 38 dealers (10 in North America, 12 in EMEA, 4 in Latin America and 12 in Asia/Pacific) from OTR Global’s December report

INTERVIEWS Mid-February through early March

AVERAGES Regional averages weighted according to each source’s 2018 new equipment sales; global averages weighted according to each region’s percentage of Caterpillar’s 2018 machinery, energy and transportation sales and revenue

New heavy equipment sales and order growth have tapered during 1Q19, Caterpillar has lost share in multiple regions, and used equipment prices have moderated.

  • 1Q19 global new equipment sales up 10%–13% yy (vs. up 14%–17% in 4Q18); demand slowed most significantly in Asia/Pacific but improved slightly in EMEA
  • 1Q19 global new equipment orders up 7%–10% yy (vs. up 10%–13% in 4Q18), most significant sequential deterioration since OTR Global's 3Q16 findings
  • CAT losing share to KMTUY in North America, domestic OEMs in Asia/Pacific because of competitive pricing environment
  • 1Q19 global used equipment prices flat–up 2% yy (vs. up 3%–6% in 4Q18); greatest moderation in North America
  • Area to Watch: 2019 new equipment sales expected up 6%–9% yy, as dealers expect current backlog to carry activity through year-end
by Jarrett Harris
Cyclicals