October 27, 2020

AGCO, CNHI, DE, 6326 JP, Claas KGaA mbH, RAVN

Download Sample Report Click to View Full Report

SOURCES AND BACKGROUND

63 farm equipment dealers representing more than $4.5 billion in annual new sales

NORTH AMERICA 30 dealers (17 Deere, 9 CNH, 4 AGCO); WESTERN EUROPE 14 dealers (7 Deere, 4 CNH, 3 AGCO); RUSSIA/CIS 9 dealers (5 Deere, 2 CNH and 1 each AGCO and Claas); SOUTH AMERICA 10 dealers (4 Deere and 3 each CNH and AGCO)

REPEAT SOURCES 47 (24 in North America, 11 in Western Europe, 7 in South America, and 5 in Russia/CIS) from OTR Global’s July report

INTERVIEWS Sept. 25 through Oct. 20

AVERAGES Regional averages weighted according to each source’s 2019 new equipment sales revenue; Western European averages weighted according to each country’s 2019 volume sales of tractors (France 42%, Germany 39%, United Kingdom 19%); global averages weighted according to each region’s share of equipment sales in 2019 (North America 64%, Europe 18%, Russia/CIS 5%, South America 7%)

Orders, Outlook Improve

Strengthening commodity prices drove the first yy increase in global new farm equipment orders in more than a year during August–October, and dealers in the Americas were optimistic about 2021.

  • August–October global new equipment orders up 1%–4% yy (vs. down 6%–9% in July); sales expected up 2%–5% yy during 2020 (vs. July forecast of down 1%–4%), up 2%–5% yy in 2021 (vs. July forecast of flat–up 3%)
  • North American August–October new farm equipment orders up 2%–5% yy (vs. down 8%–11% in July) as income prospects improve; used inventories edged lower; 2021 sales expected up 2%–5% (vs. flat–up slightly in July)
  • Western European August–October new farm equipment orders flat–up slightly yy (vs. down 4%–7% in July), but 2021 projections softer than prior estimate on growing uncertainty in all countries
  • South American August–October new equipment orders up 5%–8% yy, limited only by inventory and production constraints; equipment prices up double digits on supply shortages; 2021 sales expected up 6%–9% (vs. up 4%–7% in July)
  • Area to Watch: Long lead times remain problematic in most
by Kathy Kent, Sylvain Gavard and Paula Gobbi
Cyclicals